The New Zealand Climate Change Commission's ("CCC") Q1 2021 draft report falls well short of the mark: it expects incrementalism to create transformation, is incomplete, and is inaccurate with some science. Worst of all though, it assumes that climate change is a standalone problem to solve. Climate change is a symptom of overshoot which is... Continue Reading →
Elephant 1: Absolute Decoupling of Emissions & GDP
Appendix 1 – Economic modelling says CO2 emissions will go down and GDP will go up, but historic sustained global material absolute decoupling of emissions and GDP has never happened. Intro Few people realise that absolute decoupling is an elephant in the room, but it is and it’s big. The CCC… Says “[the impact of... Continue Reading →
Key Pillar 1: Efficiency
Appendix 2 – A perfectly circular economy is impossible because of the second law of thermodynamics, so a key solution must be about efficiency. Intro The cheapest and most pragmatic way to reduce emissions is to make the world’s use of resources more efficient.[1] It will never be perfectly efficient because a circular economy is... Continue Reading →
Key Pillar 2: Reduce Consumption
Appendix 3 – The lack of a consumer-centric approach conflicts with modern political science, and excludes emissions and consumption reduction opportunities. Intro The next best thing to do is to reduce consumption.[1] While that is likely to impact GDP, looking at climate change through a consumer lens unlocks a world of recommendations and opportunities. The... Continue Reading →
Elephant 2: Coupling ETS with Other Policies
Appendix 4 – The ETS should be coupled with other policies, but bespoke associated or unrelated policies are required that do not undermine the primary tool. Intro Improving efficiency and reducing consumption opens the door for a second elephant to enter the room – i.e. should the ETS be left alone or should it be... Continue Reading →
Key Pillar 3: Future Technology
Appendix 5 – We need to do heaps more to sustain net zero carbon and de-risk the economy post-2050, and future technology steps must start now Intro The best chance of achieving sustainable absolute decoupling of emissions from GDP must therefore be technology. But not looking ‘outside the square’ on future technology opportunities and future... Continue Reading →
Omission 1: Science & Full Abatement List
Appendix 6 – There is missing science and a process error in producing sectors, and the legal duty has yet to be discharged vis-à-vis a full list of domestic emissions reductions and a new NDC. Intro Thinking ‘inside the square’ can chip away at emission reductions targets, but only if the science and legal requirements... Continue Reading →
Omission 2: Planetary Boundaries
Appendix 7 – The impact on planetary boundaries is absent, yet that is a key tenet of doughnut economics and sustainability science. Intro By now it should be clear that sustainability (of which climate change is but a part) is a paradox with trade-offs. Those trade-offs simply must be understood using modern circular techniques. The... Continue Reading →
Omission 3: Finance
Appendix 8 – Cost appears to be conflated with value, and key finance considerations are ignored including detailed capex costs, balance sheets and adaptations for councils. Intro The other missing thing is a detailed discussion of costs. Once that is unpacked it becomes clear that cost and value are conflated and financial problems and solutions... Continue Reading →
Key Pillar 4: Hybrid Carbon Accounting
Appendix 9 – A hybrid carbon accounting framework is required, and that must be able to be holistic and honour scientific and global developments. Intro Coming up a few levels, it is clear that a dynamic and appropriate carbon accounting system is required that can last for many decades to come. The CCC… Recommends “[Using... Continue Reading →
Chris Boxall 